consider the following.
Virginia expert Larry Sabato of UVa has noted the increasing number of national pundits predicting a Gillespie win which he say should make Northam feel quite confident given the poor track record of those pundits in the past in races in the Old Dominion. (disclosure — Sabato’s biggest personal error was predicting that Doug Wilder would not get elected Lt. Governor unless hell froze over — I won a rather large political bet on that race,one which could have been quite a bit larger had my wife not objected).
Then I point you at this piece by our own lowkell at Blue Virginia, which looks at the early voting patterns across the Commonwealth as presented by VPAP. The key thing is that while there is significant percentage increase in some very Red jurisdictions, those jurisdictions tend to be very small, whereas smaller percentage increases in much larger Blue jurisdictions, particularly in NoVa, represent many more votes.
And then there is the analysis from long-time but now retired Arlington County Treasurer Frank O’Leary (disclosure, a close friend who helped me move into my house and someone with whom I worked closely on his first and only close election), who has a very good track record predicting what happens in Arlington based on absentee voting (including early in person). As you can see in this Blue Virginia post, also by lowkell, O’Leary is quite optimistic about the results.
Consider:
A Real Barnburner!
Turnout in Arlington for this year’s Gubernatorial race should be a record-breaker by a wide margin – I expect more than 80,000 votes to be cast! Turnout at that level is almost Presidential. Here’s how this year should stack up in the context of recent comparable years….
My prediction is based on the level of absentee voting as a sample of the total turnout population. As of October 30, 6,856 absentee votes have been cast versus approximately 3,800 at the same point in 2013 and 2014. Should the same pattern of absentee voting (evident for these and other years) hold true, then about 12,500 (or more) absentee votes will be cast by November 7. That number in turn correlates with a total turnout of 84,000 or more.
What is missing from that block quote is the following table:
| registration | turnout | %turnout | Absentee | %absentee | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 Gubernatorial | 131,558 | 56,713 | 43.1% | 4,611 | 8.1% |
| 2010 Congressional | 132.061 | 62,382 | 47.2% | 5,573 | 8.9% |
| 2013 Gubernatorial | 137,143 | 67,762 | 49.4% | 7,304 | 10.8% |
| 2014 Congressional | 141,085 | 67,949 | 48.2% | 7,115 | 10.% |
| 2017 Gubernatorial | 145,899 | 84,000 | 57.6% | 12,500 | 14.9% |
NOTE — the turnout figures for this year are what O’Leary projects.
O’Leary notes that higher turnouts generally tend to mean better performance for Democrats.
He expects Northam to do better than McAuliffe did in Arlington 4 years ago, when
McAuliffe won Arlington by more than 33,000 votes. This year Northam should enjoy a local victory margin of 45,000 or more. Moreover, realize that in 2013 McAuliffe won by less than 57,000 statewide and the significance of Arlington in determining outcome in Virginia becomes apparent. But Arlington is not alone, and – as goes Arlington – so goes Alexandria and Falls Church and (to a lesser extent) Fairfax and Prince William.
To O’Leary’s analysis I add the following notes.
1. There are a significant number of people whose voting rights Terry McAuliffe has restored. African-Americans are heavily overrpresented (compared to state population data) in that group. Given that McAuliffe moved to restore and the Republican-led legislature attempted to throw a monkey wrench into the process, I would expect that those who vote from this group will do so heavily for Democrats up and down the ticket. It is unclear how many additional votes this will add, but it may make a difference in some House of Delegates races (all 100 seats are up).
2. Dems are contesting most Republican held House of Delegates seats, while the Republicans are not contesting most of the Democratic seats. More than a week ago Gov. McAuliffe predicted that Dems would pick up perhaps 5-7 seats, but if turnout is up that number could increase. Given how gerrymandered the districts are, it is unlikely that the Dems can pick up the necessary seats, except for this: the number of Republican held seats that Clinton carried last year is almost equal to the number needed to take control. So perhapswith big turnout and a good ground game …..
3. The Dems have a huge advantage in ground game. I have lived in Virginia since October of 1982. I have never in an odd year election (put into Virginia for state races precisely to keep the turnout down) ever seen a ground game like we are seeing this year.
The most recent poll has Northam up by 3%. McAuliffe got elected by 2.6% with the Libertarian taking more than 6%. The Real Clear Politics final average of polls had McAuliffe up by an average of 6%. That is one reason a lot of pundits are leaning more towards Gillespie pulling it out. I have not been as involved or closely following this year as I have in the past, but my own sense is that the likely voter models are understating the Democratic turnout, because there are apparently going to be a lot of voters especially in NoVa who have not voted in previous statewide elections.
One should also remember that Trump barely one this state in the Virginia primary, defeating Rubio by 34.7% to 31.9%, with Cruz drawing 16.9, Kasich 9.4, and Carson 5.9. Trump got clobbered in NoVa.
Could Gillespie win? I suppose. I seriously doubt it based on the data I have seen and what I am seeing in terms of ground game: door knocks, phone calls, etc.
In 48 hours we should know. The polls will be open from 6 AM until 7 PM. By 8 PM we should be seeing enough data, particularly from NoVa, to have a good sense of how it goes.
Peace.